A Loss, a Top Pick, and Big Questions Ahead

RAIDERS IN POLE POSITION FOR TOP PICK — NOW WHAT?

The Raiders are officially sitting in pole position for the No. 1 overall pick — and the real questions start now. In the latest Silver & Black Sports Network postgame reaction, I break down what holding the top pick actually means, how the rest of the season could still impact draft positioning, and how the Raiders will evaluate quarterback options like Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore. We also dive into what went wrong against the Giants, who stepped up offensively without Brock Bowers, and why shutting Maxx Crosby down isn’t the panic moment it might seem. If you want clear, honest context on where this rebuild stands, the full episode is worth watching.

CRAZY STAT

Geno Smith has now been sacked 55 times and thrown 16 interceptions. The only other QB to hit those numbers in the last 11 seasons? Sam Howell (65 sacks, 21 INTs in 2023)

DRAFT SCENARIOS

We’re skipping the usual recap and analysis today because, let’s be honest, nobody wants to relive a loss like that to the Giants. And the analysis itself is pretty straightforward anyway — the Raiders couldn’t run the ball (per usual), they turned it over, and defensively they couldn’t slow down Jaxson Dart. They were repeatedly picked apart over the middle, especially Devin White, who allowed 10 catches for 114 yards on 10 targets. That about sums it up.

Instead, we’re turning the page and diving into the draft.

Thanks to the loss to the Giants, the Raiders now sit in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. According to ESPN, they have an 80% chance of picking first overall when it’s all said and done. If they lose to the Chiefs in the season finale at Allegiant Stadium, they’ll lock in the top spot and have their choice of any player they want.

If they somehow beat a Mahomes-less Chiefs team, things get a little more interesting — but not too interesting. Based on the strength-of-schedule rankings (see the SOS column from Tankathon above), the Raiders are still all but assured a top-two pick. There is technically a path to falling to third overall, but it’s highly unlikely and would require a lot to break against them. So the math is pretty simple: lose to KC, secure the top pick, and let the real debate begin — Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore.

For more on who could start at QB in the finale — and how Pete feels about his job security — keep scrolling.

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WILL PETE BE BACK?

After the 34–10 loss to the Giants — the fourth time this season the Raiders have been beaten by 24 or more points — Pete Carroll was asked about his job status and whether he still feels supported by ownership. Despite what has been the worst season of his head coaching career and a win percentage that now ranks second-worst among Raiders head coaches, Carroll maintained that his relationship with ownership remains strong.

Carroll stopped short of saying those conversations have given him any assurance about returning for a second season. The 74-year-old signed a three-year deal with a fourth-year team option last January after spending a year away from football following his 14-year run in Seattle.

We don’t know for sure whether the Raiders and Pete Carroll will ultimately part ways this offseason, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that it may be the best move for all parties involved. Especially with the Raiders positioned to potentially hold the No. 1 overall pick, the job would be highly attractive for a new head coach — one who could hand-pick the quarterback of the future and start fresh, even with more roster holes to address beyond just the QB position.

Which brings us to the obvious next question: who’s going to be under center in the season finale?

IS GENO DONE FOR THE YEAR?

We’ve laid out what’s on the line for the Raiders next week against the Chiefs — but they may have to take on Andy Reid and company without Geno Smith under center. After throwing his second interception of the day in the fourth quarter, Smith suffered an ankle sprain and never returned to the game.

Pete Carroll said Smith is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday, though he didn’t sound particularly optimistic about the quarterback’s availability for the season finale.

Kenny Pickett came on in relief for Geno Smith against the Giants and would likely get the start in the season finale against Kansas City if Smith is unable to go.

WHAT’S NEXT?

We’ll hear from Pete Carroll again today at 11:00 a.m. PT at his usual Monday press conference, but don’t expect any real updates on Geno until Wednesday. He doesn’t usually have many injury answers on Mondays.

Also, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Silver & Black Sports Network Podcast dropping on Wednesday morning as we inch closer to the season finale and some closure on where the Raiders will ultimately be picking in the NFL Draft.

Catch ya next time,