Inside the Raiders’ Identity Crisis: Scheme Shifts, OL Changes & the Road Ahead

HOW THE RAIDERS CAN ACTUALLY REBUILD

If you want the clearest picture yet of how the Raiders got here and where they go from here, you need to check out this week’s podcast with Cody Alexander of MatchQuarters.com — one of the sharpest defensive minds in football. Cody and I break down everything from Pete Carroll’s true influence on the offense and defense, to why the Raiders’ scheme looks so disconnected, to how this roster actually needs to be rebuilt from the inside out. We dive into the secondary issues, the low blitz rates, the lack of identity, and what a realistic, modern blueprint for fixing this team looks like. It’s one of the most honest, detailed conversations we’ve had all season — and if you find it helpful, share it with a fellow Raiders fan who needs to hear it.

HOW MUCH HAS PETE CHANGED PATRICK GRAHAM’S DEFENSE?

By now, everyone has seen the reports suggesting Pete Carroll was heavily involved in the offense and essentially dictated the style Chip Kelly was required to run. We all saw how that worked out. Given Carroll’s history and success as a defensive-minded head coach, you would also expect him to be heavily involved on the defensive side — and it appears that has absolutely been the case.

Carroll’s famed “Legion of Boom” defenses were built on a heavy Cover 3 foundation. While that scheme has since fallen out of favor across much of the league in favor of more two-high coverages, Carroll hasn’t moved off it. He’s come in and hammered down Cover 3 usage with the Raiders, and the numbers back up his influence in a big way.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Patrick Graham utilized Cover 3 on 26 percent of defensive snaps last season — right around league average. This year, with Carroll in the building, that number has surged dramatically. The Raiders have run Cover 3 a league-high 47 percent of the time. The Falcons are the next closest team at 44 percent. Over the last six weeks, the number has climbed even further: the Raiders have been in Cover 3 55 percent of the time, which is 11 percent more than the next closest defense.

That’s a massive shift, and overall, the Raiders run zone looks at the highest rate in the league. So this week, I asked Pete what he likes philosophically about a zone-heavy scheme.

It’s worth noting that Cover 3 remains a common zone coverage look, but the issue is the rate at which poor teams are relying on it. The four teams calling Cover 3 on more than 40 percent of their snaps — the Raiders, Falcons, Saints, and Panthers — are a combined 15–34. That should tell you plenty about why the coverage has fallen out of vogue.

Combine that with the fact that Patrick Graham has significantly dialed back his blitz rate this season, and it prompted Cody Alexander and me to ask a very real question: Did Pete Carroll learn anything during his year away from football?

For more on that — and why the Raiders’ blitz rate has dropped so dramatically — check out the video below from my conversation with Cody.

MAKE BO BEAT YOU

We’re foregoing the usual “Keys to the Game” this week because, let’s be honest, Denver is playing like one of the best teams in the league while the Raiders have struggled mightily. Instead, let’s spotlight something that does swing in the Raiders’ favor: Bo Nix has struggled in a big way against zone defenses. Check out the data from Tom Strachan in the tweet below.

As we laid out earlier, the Raiders run zone at the highest rate in the league — and you’ll remember they had success defending Nix and the Broncos offense the last time these two teams met on Thursday Night Football. That blueprint doesn’t need to change: lean into zone, force Nix to diagnose and beat it, and make him win with his arm.

But that only works if the Raiders stop the run first. Denver’s ground game has sputtered recently — their running backs have averaged just three yards per carry over the last two weeks, forcing only four missed tackles and producing just two explosive runs. Still, if the Raiders tackle like they did against the Chargers, this becomes a “get-right” game for Denver in a hurry. The assignment is simple: tighten up the tackling, bottle up the run, and make Bo play quarterback.

And of course, the offense has to carry its weight — something that’s been an issue all season.

By the way, the tweet above lays out Bo’s issues vs. zone coverage. Keep scrolling to see how the Raiders’ zone-heavy scheme and the way Nix attacks it could help you make a little extra cash this weekend.

IS THIS THE YEAR THEY DRAFT A QB IN THE 1ST ROUND?

I’m an avid reader, so from time to time I like to share interesting pieces from other writers when they’re relevant to Raiders fans — and given how this season has gone, a lot of you have already shifted your attention toward the draft. With that in mind, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler dropped his first mock draft this week, and it features the Raiders making a move to select Oregon quarterback Dante Moore.

I’ve tried to hold off on draft talk because I want to give the regular season the attention it deserves — after all, we’ll have plenty of time to dissect the offseason and everything this team needs to change when the season is over. But this week, I caved. I sat down with Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus to break down the top quarterbacks expected to enter this year’s class, including Moore. In our latest podcast (linked below), Dalton walks through how each of these QBs could fit into the Raiders’ plans, what direction he believes the team is most likely to take, and why Dante Moore is such an intriguing option specifically for Las Vegas.

Give it a listen — the audio version dropped this morning, and the full video will be live on YouTube at 9:00 a.m. If you’re reading this after that, you can take your pick between the video or audio versions and dive into some early draft talk.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

WHAT’S GOING ON AT RIGHT GUARD?

The offensive line has been a major talking point this season — and most of that conversation has centered around how rough this group has looked. The sack total is now up to 25 in the last four games. With injuries to Kolton Miller, Jackson Powers-Johnson, and Jordan Meredith, many of you have been clamoring to see the Raiders’ two third-round rookie offensive linemen.

So far, Charles Grant has played just one snap. But against the Chargers last week, we finally got a real look at Caleb Rogers, who logged 17 snaps after the staff decided to rotate him with Antonio Mafi at right guard. In that limited action, Rogers allowed just one pressure, zero sacks, and no QB hits. It’s a small sample size, but he earned a 67.1 overall grade from PFF, making him the highest-graded Raiders offensive lineman of the week.

Mafi played 31 snaps and also held his own. He allowed only one pressure, zero sacks, and no QB hits, earning an 84.5 pass-blocking grade. His overall grade came in at 59.9, though, as PFF graded him lower in the run game.

So what happens this week? Will one of them take over the role full-time, or will the rotation continue? Based on what Greg Olson has told us, it sounds like the staff plans to stick with the rotation for now.

RAIDERS ROUNDERS

THE BEST BETS OF THE WEEK FOR THE BRONCOS VS. RAIDERS GAME

We’ve rolled out something new for Raider Nation this season: Raiders Rounders. Each week, I team up with betting analyst Matt Perrault (The Bostonian vs The Book, The Daily Juice) to spotlight the best Raiders bets of the week and a few smart plays from around the NFL. Think of it as the perfect mix of insider football talk and betting insight, giving you a sharper look at how Vegas views the Silver & Black — from player props to game lines — and where the edges might be heading into Sunday.

With that in mind, here are our best plays for the Raiders’ Week 14 matchup against the Broncos:

• Broncos -7.5 (When we taped our segment Circa already had it at -8 for Denver so get on this as soon as you can. It may continue to climb)

• Under 40.5

• Geno anytime INT

• Bo Nix over 16.5 rushing yards

⚠️ Disclaimer: Raiders Rounders is all about sharing our perspective on the game. These aren’t betting recommendations — any wagers you place are 100% your responsibility. Bet responsibly.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of one of Maxx’s two sacks against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. That two sack game marked Maxx’s 15th career game with 2.0+ sacks, tying Danielle Hunter for the fifth most in the NFL since 2019.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Raiders wrap up the week of practice today over at HQ. So make sure you’re tapped into our social channels for the latest updates from Raiders Headquarters in Henderson.

After that, we’re looking ahead to gameday! Be sure to subscribe to us on YouTube so you don’t miss our postgame podcast from the field after the game.

Catch ya next time,