Raiders vs. Saints: Three Things to Watch

BIG TEST IN NOLA

The Raiders are 2-0, but Week 3 should tell us a lot more about just how good this team really is. Longtime Saints reporter Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football joins me to go behind enemy lines for a deep dive into what the Raiders are up against in New Orleans. We break down Tyler Shough’s impressive start, Chris Olave and the challenge facing the Raiders’ secondary, where Maxx Crosby and the pass rush could have an advantage, and how Brandon Staley has changed the Saints’ defense. If you want to know what to expect Sunday and where this matchup could be won or lost, check out the full episode linked above.

THINGS I’M WATCHING

BROCK’S IMPENDING RETURN

Ryan and I dove into this in deeper detail on the show on Wednesday, so check that out if you want a more nuanced look at this, but it’s looking like Brock could make his return this weekend in New Orleans. And I’m just so curious to see how different this offense looks with him out there, particularly against the Saints.

While Brock’s been out, they’ve leaned heavily into two-back sets. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Raiders have used two or more running backs on 44.1% of their plays, good for the second-highest rate in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. They’ve also been really successful in those sets, averaging 6.1 yards per play out of 21 personnel, which is the sixth-best mark in the league.

Now, if Brock does indeed return, it will be no shock to see them lean more on 12, 22 and 13 personnel groupings. So far, they’ve used 12 personnel on just 15.7% of their snaps this season, which is the eighth-lowest mark in the league. Last season, they ranked fourth in the league in 12 personnel usage, running it 33.8% of the time.

But here’s the interesting part: Kubiak came from Seattle, where they called 12 personnel on 27.4% of their snaps (11th-highest) and averaged a league-high 7.5 yards per play out of it. Obviously, they had JSN up there, but they didn’t have a tight end room like they do now in Las Vegas, up in Seattle. So, with Brock and Big Mike out there, Kubiak can dial up some very interesting looks.

We’ve talked about it a ton, how teams have leaned more into those heavy looks to try and force defenses into base personnel so they can create more favorable looks in the passing attack. Just like we’ve seen around the league, New Orleans relies pretty heavily on nickel (64.3%), but when teams deploy 12 and 13 personnel, their nickel rate drops to 25%, meaning they’re in base 75% of the time.

Long story short, that’s going to create a lot of favorable matchups for Brock Bowers when they’re in base, and it’s up to Klint Kubiak and Kirk Cousins to take advantage of that. Over the course of the game, it should force the Saints into some lighter boxes, thus opening more running lanes for Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr.

THE BACK END

Rookie safety Treydan Stukes is still in the concussion protocol and has yet to practice this week. I’m thinking he sits this one out in New Orleans, which would mean more playing time for Isaiah Pola-Mao. That’s not something I like for the Raiders on the back end.

So far, he’s played 16 coverage snaps this year, and on three targets, he’s allowed two catches for 61 yards and a passer rating of 109.7. Small sample size, I know.

So, let’s look at last year. In 560 coverage snaps, IPM was targeted 43 times, allowing 29 catches for 429 yards, five touchdowns, and he had two interceptions. He also allowed a 67.4 catch percentage and a passer rating of 119.2.

I bring that up because Tyler Shough has been on a tear through the first two weeks of the season, and last week he was 8-for-8 for 181 yards and a touchdown when a safety was the primary guy in coverage.

I don’t want to dog Pola-Mao here. The corner situation was pretty bad last year and the defense as a whole wasn’t good, so he was put in some bad situations, but I don’t think he helped himself a ton in those situations, either.

So, all I’m saying is, keep an eye on how things look on the back end if Stukes indeed can’t go and IPM ends up being the guy back deep, especially against this Saints team that features Chris Olave and has been tearing teams apart in the passing game.

OH SHOUGH

I mentioned Tyler Shough. Through two weeks, this dude’s attempted 90 passes, completing 62 of them for 662 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. He’s been feelin’ himself.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have given quarterbacks hell. They’re third in the league in Havoc rating entering Week 3 and have been generating pressure without blitzing a ton — 29% in Week 2 and 13.1% in Week 1. The Saints have also allowed the most pressure (40) in the NFL so far this season.

Now, I mentioned how much they’ve passed, so keep in mind those numbers are skewed a bit because they’ve dropped back to pass at the second-highest clip in the league. But Shough has played really well when facing that pressure. He’s completed a league-high 19 of 29 passes (65.5%) for a league-high 303 yards and 10.4 yards per attempt (second-most).

A big reason for that is because he’s extended plays well when he’s faced pressure, averaging +0.92 seconds between pressure and throw (sixth-most). So, it will be key for the Raiders to make sure he doesn’t extend plays and burn them downfield when they do generate pressure.

One last note: While the Raiders lead the NFL in pressure rate (50%), opposing quarterbacks have held the ball for an average of 3.03 seconds before throwing (third-longest), so they’re likely going to have to get to Shough much faster this week because he has the fourth-highest quick-pass rate in the league, with 52.2% of his throws getting off in under 2.5 seconds.

So, I’m real interested to see how, or if, Rob Leonard schemes up pressures faster against a quarterback who’s handled it pretty well. Also, keep in mind their left tackle, Kelvin Banks Jr., was just placed on IR, so there’s some opportunity to attack the left side a bit more.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

HOW BROCK CHANGES THE OFFENSE

In case you missed our first show of the week, Ryan Hoag and I took a closer look at what’s actually working for the Raiders through the first two weeks of the season. We dive into Kirk Cousins, why the offensive line deserves more credit and what Rob Leonard is doing with a defense that’s creating tons of havoc. But the really interesting part is what could happen next: Brock Bowers appears to be nearing his return, so we break down how getting him back will actually change Klint Kubiak’s offense.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Cody White after his first of two touchdowns in the win over the Charges. This one’s just fun. I love celly shots and Arnie was in the right place a the right time for this one. Also, shoutout to Cody White. Dude’s had a hell of a start to the season, let’s see if he can continue it in week three.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Keep an eye out for our next podcast dropping later this afternoon. I’ll dive into a few of the matchups I’m paying attention to in this weekend’s game and hit another round of Raiders Rounders with Matt Perrault from Pushing the Odds.

Catch ya next time,