Why the Raiders Could Dominate Out of 12 Personnel

HOW KUBIAK WILL USE BROCK BOWERS

If you’re a football junkie who loves diving into the X’s and O’s, you’re going to love this episode. Max Toscano from Remember the Tight Ends and Reception Perception joined me for a really fun deep dive into Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, and the Raiders’ entire tight end room. We break down why Bowers is such a unique weapon, what makes him so difficult to defend, and why Mayer could quietly end up being one of the most important pieces in Klint Kubiak’s offense. We also hit on Ian Thomas’ role and how the Raiders could use multiple-tight-end looks to create mismatches all over the field. If you want a real football conversation, this episode is absolutely worth your time.

THE 12 PERSONNEL MAD SCIENTIST

One of the more interesting things to watch this season will be how Klint Kubiak reshapes his 12 personnel package now that he’s got Brock Bowers in the fold. Last season in Seattle, Kubiak used 12 personnel on 29.8% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, according to SumerSports. More importantly, Seattle was really effective out of those looks, posting the second-best EPA in the league when lined up in 12 personnel. Meanwhile, the Raiders actually used 12 personnel even more often than Seattle did last year — at a 33.9% clip, fourth-highest in the league — but ranked just 30th in EPA out of those formations. You can thank the injury issues that plagued Brock all year, along with the struggles along the offensive line, for a lot of that.

The biggest reason Seattle had so much success out of those heavier looks? Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As Max Toscano explained on the podcast, Seattle used 12 personnel to “con” defenses into matching with more base looks instead of nickel, simplifying the coverage structures they’d face with fewer defensive backs on the field. Once defenses got heavier personnel out there, Seattle used motion, formations, and window dressing to funnel the ball to JSN and attack those simplified coverages. In other words, the heavy personnel wasn’t just about running the football — it was about manipulating defenses into becoming easier to throw against.

That’s where things get really interesting for the Raiders. In Seattle, Kubiak was funneling those opportunities to a wide receiver. In Vegas, he’ll likely funnel them to a tight end — but not just any tight end. Brock Bowers is such a unique receiving threat that he changes the math entirely. As Toscano pointed out, the Raiders can do a lot more “flex stuff” with Bowers than Seattle did with its tight ends because Bowers is just a different kind of player. He’s unlike any tight end Seattle had, and his versatility should allow Kubiak to vary his 12 personnel looks even more. The Raiders can line up in true 12 personnel while also creating looks that function more like 11 personnel because of Bowers’ ability as both a pass catcher and move blocker.

All that to say, expect the Raiders to be far more effective in 12 personnel than they were last season — health permitting — now that Kubiak is in the fold. He should be able to keep defenses guessing even more because of what Brock brings as a “positionless” weapon who can handle so many different receiving roles from all over the formation.

And if you want the deeper dive on exactly how Kubiak used JSN in Seattle, whether Brock can truly inherit parts of that role, and how his usage could look different because he’s a tight end instead of a receiver, make sure you check out the full podcast linked above.

REQUIRED READING

It felt like Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders was a foregone conclusion for months. But when you’re taking a quarterback No. 1 overall, you don’t skip steps — and Albert Breer did a fantastic job detailing everything that went into the Raiders ultimately deciding Mendoza was their guy. From the film work, to the whiteboard sessions, to the dinners and background work, this is a really fascinating inside look at how Vegas came to its biggest decision in years. Definitely worth the read.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

DEEP DIVE INTO THE WR CORE

After last week’s newsletter sparked a big conversation about the Raiders’ receiver room, we took things a step further on Tuesday’s podcast. I dove into why the Raiders didn’t force a wide receiver early in the draft, how Klint Kubiak’s offense changes the conversation around what they actually need at the position, and what roles guys like Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Dont’e Thornton Jr., Jalen Nailor, and Malik Benson could carve out this season. We also hit on what each of them still needs to prove if they want to be part of the Raiders’ long-term plans, plus a few undrafted rookie receivers worth keeping an eye on as camp approaches.

WHERE DO THEY FIT?

We went heavy on offense — and tight ends, for that matter — today, so let’s sprinkle in a little defense. The Raiders hammered the defensive backfield during the draft, but one of the more interesting moves was adding a pair of safeties from the same school in Treydan Stukes and Dalton Johnson. I love both picks, but some of you may be wondering what exactly their roles will be. For that, check out the clip above where defensive guru Cody Alexander (MatchQuarters.com) lays out exactly what each guy could be asked to do both now and in the future.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Fernando Mendoza at rookie minicamp on Saturday. You had to know a FanShotz Friday featuring Fernando was coming, right? As a guy who loves alliteration I couldn’t help myself, but, it was also our first shot to see him rockin’ the Silver and Black, so this one was a no doubter. I’ve got a feeling we’ll be featuring plenty of shots Arnie grabs of Mendoza over the years here, so here’s to the first of many.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Mother’s Day! Would this be a real Raiders site if I didn’t channel my inner Willie Brown and remind you to call your mom this weekend? If you’re lucky enough to still have your mother in your life make sure you make her feel special this weekend. Catch you guys on the pod on Tuesday!

Catch ya next time,