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Draft Stakes, QB Questions, and a Season Finale That Matters
QB questions, draft math, and the real stakes vs. the Chiefs.
Jesse Merrick
January 02, 2026
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QUOTE OF THE DAY"You guys have some access to him, but it's not just what happens on the field with this guy. It's what he does in the community, it's how he is in the meeting rooms. Like to me, Vince taught me this a long time ago, just in terms of if you're going to be excellent at this game, because you're trying to be excellent at everything you're doing. And that's what this dude does, like he goes hard in everything he does, whether it's charity, whether it's how he's in the meeting room. So, what does it say about him? I'm telling you it's not just the football with this dude. I mean, he's a great football player. He's one of the best on the planet to do it, but like that's how he conducts himself with everything, that's why it's a privilege to be around him. That's why you wish the wins were stacking up for him and for the other guys, but especially for him, because I just see it. He beats me in here some days, which I mean is tough, but he does sometimes. He does." — Raiders Defensive Coordinator, Patrick Graham on Maxx Crosby battling knee injuries most of the season before being shut down last week |  Photo Courtesy: Arnie Bazemore/FanShotz |
In today’s newsletter, we focus on what actually matters heading into the season finale — the draft stakes, the quarterback situation, and all the ways the Raiders can lock down the No. 1 overall pick. We also break down why players like Ashton Jeanty — and the Raiders’ heavy use of 12 personnel — are worth watching as this season winds down, along with analysis on Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore as the quarterback debate really heats up.
If you’re enjoying our newsletter, share it with a friend — the bigger our audience grows, the better the conversation gets.
FORMER RAIDER SOUNDS OFF
WE’RE TALKING CHIEFS, TANKING, AND THE QB WHO CAN SAVE THE RAIDERS
A prediction that sounded wild a few weeks ago is suddenly very real. Former Raiders wide receiver Ryan Hoag joins me on the Silver & Black Sports Network Podcast to break down why the Raiders’ Week 18 matchup could have massive implications for the No. 1 overall pick — and how picking first or second completely changes their offseason strategy. We also dive into which quarterback Hoag believes can actually change the franchise, and a fascinating idea to fix a draft system that rewards tanking. If you’re trying to wrap your head around every possible Raiders scenario heading into the offseason, this episode is worth the watch.
DRAFT SCENARIOS THIS WEEKEND
The Raiders head into Week 18 squarely in control of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, thanks to owning the worst record in the league.
On paper, it’s simple: lose the season finale at home to the Chiefs and the top pick is locked up. Of course, it’s never quite that clean. Kansas City is banged up and down to third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun, but this is also the same team that lost to the Titans two weeks ago — a team the Raiders beat for one of their two wins. That said, after a 24-point loss to the Giants and with Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers already shut down for the season, it’s hard to see the Raiders suddenly pulling off an upset.
Even if they do, there are still paths to staying at No. 1. The easiest is a Giants win or tie against Dallas. There’s also a strength-of-schedule scenario where the Raiders can win, the Giants lose, and Las Vegas still ends up on top if three of four teams — Seattle, Cleveland, Atlanta, or Chicago — also lose. No matter how things shake out, the Raiders can’t fall lower than the No. 2 pick.
KEEP AN EYE ON JEANTY
Photo Courtesy: Arnie Bazemore/FanShotz
It’s been a rough season for the Raiders, especially on the ground. They’re dead last in the league, averaging just 74.9 rushing yards per game — and that’s after drafting Ashton Jeanty sixth overall. The offensive line struggles have been that severe.
Even so, Jeanty has still managed to produce, racking up 1,227 total scrimmage yards. That puts him just 90 yards shy of Josh Jacobs’ franchise record for scrimmage yards by a rookie, which says a lot about the season he’s having despite the circumstances.
VAMOS A MIAMI
Just three days before the season finale against the Chiefs, the Raiders’ quarterback room got an unexpected shakeup. And no, it’s not because Geno Smith is unlikely to play after suffering an ankle injury against the Giants, or because Pete Carroll said both Kenny Pickett and Aidan O’Connell will see time against Kansas City. Instead, the Dolphins swooped in and signed rookie sixth-round pick Cam Miller off the Raiders’ practice squad and onto their active roster for the final game of the season.
Miller spent the entire year on the Raiders’ practice squad after clearing waivers following training camp, but with Miami’s move, they now take over his rookie contract and control his rights unless they decide to waive him down the line.
"Yeah, disappointing to lose him because we put a lot of time in, and he's put a lot of time in here as well. And so, I had a chance talk to him last night before he got on the plane and left, but he's a hard worker and certainly somebody that we valued here, and it's hard to lose a guy like that late in the season. But good luck to him, and happy for him."
It’s a tough turn for the Raiders after developing him all season — and one that feels avoidable. With Carroll all but confirming Geno was done earlier in the week, the Raiders could have placed him on injured reserve and elevated Miller to the active roster to protect him. Instead, he’s headed elsewhere. That said, it’s a great opportunity for Miller to get a fresh start in Miami, where their own quarterback situation remains very much unsettled.
INTERESTING READ
The above piece from The Athletic was written before Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore took the field in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, but it’s still a really useful read as the playoff moves forward. It offers a good look at what NFL evaluators are watching for from both quarterbacks and gives you a clearer idea of what to pay attention to as they square off again in the semifinals next week.
If you want my take on how both quarterbacks actually performed in their quarterfinal matchups — and which direction I think the Raiders should be leaning after seeing them on that stage — check out the latest episode of the Silver & Black Sports Network Podcast. I break down what stood out, what didn’t, and how it all translates to the NFL. The audio version is linked below, and the full video drops at 9:00 a.m. PT today if you’d rather watch.
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MISS ANYTHING?
Catch up on some of our recent stories:
 A Loss, a Top Pick, and Big Questions Ahead
|  Who’s Still Standing for the Raiders — and Who’s Stepping Up Next
|
IS FERNANDO MENDOZA THE NEXT MATT RYAN?
There’s been a lot of quarterback talk in today’s newsletter — and for good reason. With everything swirling around the Raiders right now, it’s starting to feel more and more likely they’ll have a real shot at landing their quarterback of the future if things break the right way this weekend. Is Fernando Mendoza that guy? Many around the league see him as the consensus top quarterback in this class, and Peter Schrager and Daniel Jeremiah dive into his NFL comparison and what teams might be getting.
MORE 12 PERSONNEL NEXT SEASON?
The Raiders are already using 12 personnel at one of the highest rates in the NFL — and it sounds like that may just be the starting point. Las Vegas has lined up with two tight ends on 34.6% of its offensive snaps this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. After the loss to the Giants, we talked on the postgame reaction podcast about why that number should probably be going up, not down — especially after Michael Mayer broke out for nine catches and 89 yards in that game.
Interim offensive coordinator Greg Olson echoed that idea this week, pointing out how rare it is to have two players like Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer on the same roster. As Olson put it, “I think it’s a package that definitely can expand in the future here for the Raiders,” because it’s hard to find players like them. If this offense is going to lean into its strengths moving forward, more 12 personnel feels like an obvious place to start.
RAIDERS ROUNDERS
We’ve rolled out something new for Raider Nation this season: Raiders Rounders. Each week, I team up with betting analyst Matt Perrault (The Bostonian vs The Book, The Daily Juice) to spotlight the best Raiders bets of the week and a few smart plays from around the NFL. Think of it as the perfect mix of insider football talk and betting insight, giving you a sharper look at how Vegas views the Silver & Black — from player props to game lines — and where the edges might be heading into Sunday.
With that in mind, here’s our take on the Raiders’ Week 18 matchup against the Chiefs:
Matt’s out of town on vacation so we’re skipping the weekly Raiders Rounders deep dive, but just like last week, I’d say don’t bet this one. It’s essentially a preseason game due to the number of guys who are sidelined and so much is up in the air. The Chiefs are 5.5 point favorites and I do think they win the game, but anything can happen in the final week of the season so I don’t feel comfortable telling anyone to bet this one.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Raiders Rounders is all about sharing our perspective on the game. These aren’t betting recommendations — any wagers you place are 100% your responsibility. Bet responsibly.
FANSHOTZ FRIDAY
Photo Courtesy: Arnie Bazemore/Fan Shotz
“FanShotz Friday”
By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day. This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Ashton in the Raiders’ game against the Giants. Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.
WHAT’S NEXT?
We’ll see you at Allegiant Stadium for the season finale agaisnt the Chiefs. Make sure you catch our postgame podcast on YouTube as soon as we’re done in the locker room with interviews.
Catch ya next time,
Silver & Black Sports Network is an independent media outlet. We are not affiliated with, endorsed, or sponsored by the Las Vegas Raiders or the NFL.
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