Raiders vs. Chiefs: Three Matchups That Could Decide It

GOING BEHIND ENEMY LINES

If you want to know what the Raiders are really up against in Kansas City, we gotta go behind enemy lines. Sterling Holmes from Sports Radio 810 in KC, joined me on Thursday’s show to explain how Kenneth Walker has transformed the Chiefs’ offense and made life easier for Patrick Mahomes. We dive into what the Raiders have to do to slow down KC’s new-look rushing attack, but also where they could have a major advantage — particularly with Maxx Crosby and the pass rush against the Chiefs’ offensive tackles. Plus, we break down how Kansas City could try to handle Brock Bowers, what Kirk Cousins is up against with Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and the matchups that could ultimately decide Sunday’s AFC West showdown.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH

KC’S GROUND GAME

The Chiefs have had some pretty rough rushing attacks the last couple of years. In 2024 and 2025, they had an explosive run rate of just 5.6%. For reference, they’re the only team in the NFL under 7% in that timespan.

But Kenneth Walker has changed that in a big way. He had a 13.9% explosive run rate last year up in Seattle, and he’s picked up where he left off — and then some — this season. Through three weeks, he’s got a 15.4% explosive run rate, racking up 10 runs of 10-plus yards.

And a big reason for this is because he’s shedding tackles at an insane rate. He’s forced a league-high 41 missed tackles this season. That’s a crazy number, and I get it, you might be saying, “It’s only been three weeks.” Well, get this: He’s forced 320 missed tackles since he entered the NFL in 2022, which is good for the third most in that timespan behind only Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson.

But it’s not just him. His rookie running mate, Emmet Johnson, has been slippery, too. He’s forced 12 missed tackles, good for a missed tackle rate of 60%, which is tops in the NFL (among players with at least 20 touches this season).

The combined 53 missed tackles forced by Walker and Johnson are the most in the league and a whopping 22 more than the next-closest running back room. So, long story short, the Raiders really have to tackle well this week. Luckily for them, they’ve been pretty solid in that category. They’re 14th in the league in missed tackle percentage (11.6%), according to Sumer Sports.

The other interesting part about stopping KC’s rushing attack is the direction they’re running. Kenneth Walker has run to the left on 72.3% of his carries this season, which is the highest rate among running backs with at least 20 carries. That equates to 39 carries to the left for a league-high 242 yards, with a 6.2 yards-per-carry average and six explosive runs.

And the Chiefs are also creating more space for Kenneth on the left side. Running left, he’s averaged 2.4 yards before contact per carry, which is three times higher than his 0.8 mark when running right.

And here’s the important part: That’s away from Maxx Crosby, who’s lined up on the offense’s right side on 77.6% of his snaps. So, it’s going to be on Kwity Paye and Malcolm Koonce to step up on the left side, that is, if Rob Leonard doesn’t play games with Maxx’s alignment.

It’s worth noting that Tonka Hemingway and Folorunso Fatukasi have also looked good on the interior against the run, too, so keep an eye on them.

GETTING TO MAHOMES

We’ll get to the Raiders offense in a second, but this next part goes hand in hand with our conversation about stopping the Chiefs offense and where Maxx will line up.

The Raiders have to get to Patrick Mahomes. That’s not breaking news to anyone. But again, how they can do that is the interesting part.

Even without left tackle Josh Simmons, who’s missed the first three weeks of the season with a back injury and hasn’t practiced at all this week, they’ve held up well on the left side. That’s because undrafted rookie Khalil Benson has posted a 6.6% pressure rate, which is the seventh-lowest among left tackles with at least 25 pass blocks. Paired with left guard Kingsley Suamataia, the left side of the Chiefs offensive line has allowed a collective 5.2% pressure rate, which is the fifth-lowest in the league.

Creed Humphrey has also been Creed Humphrey. He’s allowed just one pressure and no sacks so far.

But the right side of KC’s line hasn’t been great. They’ve allowed a 10.4% pressure rate, the eighth-highest in the NFL.

So, while I say they may want to play some games with Maxx in terms of moving him around to try and stop the run when KC tries to go to the left, it’s kind of a double-edged sword because you want to let him do what he does best: rush the passer. And it’s statistically a better matchup for him on the left, where he lines up most of the time. So, keep an eye on how that all plays out.

And one more thing: watch how often the Raiders blitz Mahomes. He’s been really good against the blitz throughout his career, and this season is no different. He’s got the third-highest completion percentage in the league against the blitz (76.9%) and is averaging 9.5 yards per passing attempt against the blitz, which is the fifth-most in the NFL.

Now, the Raiders don’t blitz much, just 22.1% of the time on dropbacks, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, but when they do blitz, it’s been really effective. They’ve actually generated a league-high 60% pressure rate and recorded five sacks on just 25 blitzes this season.

And on the back end, the coverage has held up really well when they bring the heat. They’ve allowed a 47.4% completion percentage when they blitz, which is the second-lowest mark in the league.

So, that chess match between Rob Leonard and Patrick Mahomes will be fascinating to watch.

KUBIAK VS. SPAGS

Speaking of chess matches and blitzing, Klint Kubiak versus Steve Spagnuolo is going to be another fun battle to watch. Although this first portion on the Raiders offense versus the Chiefs defense is more of a Kirk Cousins and Tyler Linderbaum versus Spags.

We all know Spagnuolo is widely considered one of the best in the biz at disguising blitzes, and the stats back that up. The Chiefs have actually recorded nine unblocked pressures on blitzes this season, which is tied for the third-most, so Kirk and Tyler will need to be on point from a protection perspective.

Just to hammer home how good Spags is at disguising things, since 2019 under Spagnuolo, the Chiefs have generated 339 unblocked pressures when blitzing. I don’t think I have to tell you, but that’s the most in the NFL over that timespan.

It’s also worth noting that Kirk is 0-3 against Spagnuolo since he’s been with the Chiefs, and he’s taken five sacks when he’s faced his KC defenses in that span. But he’s thrown for an average of 244 yards and two touchdowns in those games against the Chiefs and Spags, with only one interception.

And one thing in particular that could help him have even more success is if the Raiders can force the Chiefs into single-high safety looks. To do that, you’ve gotta be able to run the ball and make ’em devote more bodies to the box to stop it.

If they can do that, it bodes well for Kirk and the offense. That’s because Kirk has completed 78.8% of his passes and averaged 9.5 yards per attempt against single-high looks, marks that are the second-highest and fifth-highest in the league.

Again, we’re gonna power it home with some stats on KC. When they’re in single-high coverage this season, they’ve allowed the third-worst completion percentage and yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.

And conversely, Kirk’s posted league lows in both completion percentage and yards per attempt when teams are in two-high. That’s a huge difference and could spell disaster for the Raiders if they can’t get them out of that two-high shell.

Now, we’ve seen the Raiders struggle to run the ball the last two weeks, so what if that continues? How can they hurt the Chiefs?

The answer lies in the slot. They’ve gotta go after L’Jarius Sneed. He’s played in the slot on 56.5% of his snaps this season and allowed a completion percentage of 78.3%, which is the fifth-highest clip in the league.

And I’m wondering how much Klint Kubiak tries to get Brock Bowers matched up against L’Jarius. He lined up out wide on 45.1% of his snaps against the Saints and was in the slot 35.3% of the time. He’s a mismatch against just about everyone, but I bet we see them try to get him matched up on KC’s weakest link in the secondary to exploit that matchup even more.

All stats referenced are Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

Explaining Why the Raiders AREN’T Frauds

In case you missed Wednesday’s show, Ryan Hoag and I took a deeper look at the Raiders’ 3-0 start and asked the question everyone seems to be debating: Are the Raiders actually for real? We dig into the numbers to separate what looks sustainable from the legitimate warning signs, including the protection Kirk Cousins has gotten, the Raiders’ ability to generate pressure, the impact of Brock Bowers’ return and the continued struggles in the running game. Then we turn our attention to a massive early-season AFC West matchup with the 3-0 Chiefs, breaking down the numbers behind the matchup and the chess matches between Kubiak and Spagnuolo and Rob Leonard and Andy Reid.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Brock Bowers in his 2026 debut in New Orleans. 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. That’s a hell of a start, and if you watch the tape, there were actually some yards left out there for Brock.

I’m not saying Kirk had a bad game — he’s been making great decisions — but there were a few times I thought he should have thrown to Brock. Had he done so, those numbers could have been eye-popping.

We’ll see how the two fare Sunday against KC.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Our Friday pod, where we’ll break down some more keys to the game, and catch up with our homie Matt Perrault from Pushing the Odds for another edition of Raiders Rounders. Keep an eye out for it dropping on our YouTube page later this afternoon.

Catch ya next time,