Why the Raiders Could Live in Heavy Personnel

MY BOLDEST RAIDERS OFFENSIVE PREDICTIONS

It's prediction season.

In this episode of the Silver & Black Sports Network Podcast, I put my official offensive predictions for the Raiders' 2026 season on the record. We dive into everything from how many games I think the Raiders will win to when Fernando Mendoza could take over for Kirk Cousins, whether Ashton Jeanty is headed for a monster season, and which young receiver could surprise people. We also break down Brock Bowers' outlook, the offensive line's chances of taking a major step forward, and just how heavily Klint Kubiak might lean on 12 and 13 personnel. If you want a preview of where I think this offense is headed before the season kicks off, check out the full episode linked above.

MORE HEAVY SETS COMING IN 2026?

I've been on a bit of a tight end bender lately, so why stop now?

One of my bold predictions for the Raiders' offense this season is that Klint Kubiak is going to lean into heavy personnel even more than people expect.

Last year, the Raiders used 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) on 33.9% of their offensive snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, per Sumer Sports. My prediction? They top 36% this season, which would likely put them among the top two or three teams in football.

And that's only half of it.

I also think they'll use 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) on more than 15% of their snaps. Depending on what the Rams do this season, that could put them near the top of the league in that category as well, or even at the top of the list if L.A. moves away from 13 personnel, which I don’t think will happen.

If both of those predictions come true, the Raiders would be in either 12 or 13 personnel on more than half of their offensive snaps.

Think about that for a second.

More than 50% of the offense would be built around heavy personnel packages.

The reason I think it's possible is simple: Kubiak has the pieces to make it work.

Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer are obvious reasons why, but don't overlook Connor Heyward and Ian Thomas. Heyward's versatility as a former tight end allows the Raiders to blur the lines between 13 personnel and 22 personnel, while Thomas is still a good blocking option and provides enough as a receiver to keep defenses honest in those situations.

More importantly, we've already seen what Kubiak wants these looks to accomplish.

Last season in Seattle, the Seahawks used 12 personnel at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL and ranked second in EPA when they were in those formations, per Sumer Sports. The key wasn't simply having two tight ends on the field — it was forcing defenses into base personnel. When Seattle got defenses into base looks out of 12 personnel, they were one of the most efficient offenses in football. You can see the numbers below from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell.

That's why all of this ultimately comes back to the offensive line.

If Tyler Linderbaum, the wide-zone scheme, and the coaching staff additions of Kubiak and Rick Dennison can help the Raiders run the ball more effectively, they'll force defenses to respect the run when they’re in those heavy sets. And once that happens, Kubiak can start creating the same kinds of mismatches that made his offense in Seattle so effective with the play action passing game.

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if this was part of what attracted Kubiak to Las Vegas in the first place. The Raiders already had Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, and Ashton Jeanty. Then they a added a center in Tyler Linderbaum to anchor the offensive line, and quarterback fits in Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins to orchestrate the offense.

The ingredients are there.

Now we'll find out just how often Kubiak decides to cook with them.

For the rest of my bold predictions for the Raiders' offense, check out the full podcast linked above.

INTERESTING READ

Speaking of beating the drum for even more 12 and 13 personnel from the Raiders. Bill Barnwell’s piece above is partially why I’m so high on the bigger personnel groupings and what got me thinking about the Raiders using them more. He breaks down how the Rams weaponized 13 personnel and the advantages those heavier packages can create in both the run and pass game. Give it a read, and join me in my campaigning for more heavy sets next season.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

THE HIDDEN KEY TO THE RAIDERS OFFENSE

Michael Mayer doesn’t get nearly as much attention as Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, or Fernando Mendoza. But if Klint Kubiak’s offense is going to reach its full potential, Mayer may end up being one of the most important players on the roster.

In this episode of the Silver & Black Sports Network Podcast, I break down why Mayer’s role as the Raiders’ traditional "Y" tight end could be the key to unlocking everything Kubiak wants to do offensively. We dive into why 12 personnel is so important to the scheme, how Mayer and Bowers complement each other, and why moving on from Mayer could be a much bigger mistake than many fans realize. If you’ve ever wondered why the Raiders continue to invest so heavily in the tight end position, this episode is worth checking out.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Jalen Nailor at minicamp. He’s been on my mind this week because I wonder how much overlap there actually is between his game and Jack Bech’s.

Nailor feels more like a guy who can feast on out-breaking routes, while Bech feels like a player who does his best work over the middle on in-breakers. But given the fact that the Raiders went out and got Nailor — and threw some money his way — I think he’s going to be used a ton.

I see him as a versatile, movable piece, and I think that’s exactly the type of player this staff will prioritize. They’re going to use a ton of motion this season, which means they need guys who can move around the formation and still have the speed to win on the outside. Nailor has that. Bech doesn’t. Just a thought.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Fourth of July! I hope you guys have a great weekend, we’ll catch ya next week.

Catch ya next time,