Geno Smith Revenge Game? Plus, a Rookie to Watch, & Some Raiders Perspective

IS JEANTY RIGHT ABOUT THE JETS?

Ashton Jeanty called out the Jets’ defense this week, but does he have a point? NFL analyst Will Parkinson from the Turn on the Jets Podcast joins me to explain why the Raiders might finally be able to get their running game going. Plus, we dive into the Jets’ offensive weapons, how the Raiders can force Geno Smith into mistakes and a fascinating matchup between Maxx Crosby and rookie tackle Armand Membou. If you want to know what the Raiders are really up against Sunday and where they can exploit the Jets, check out the full episode linked above.

GREG OLSON TAKES OVER PLAY CALLING

GENO REVENGE GAME?

Everyone’s calling this the Geno Smith revenge game, myself included, but I’m not so sure who this is more of a revenge game for: Geno Smith or Raider Nation? I’m not just trying to pander to you guys, but it feels like it should be more of a revenge game for Raider Nation facing him. I mean, the guy flipped his own fan base the bird. That was wild. I’m not trying to dog the guy either. He was put in a horrible situation, but he definitely didn’t handle it the best.

Now, all that aside, let’s talk about the matchup.

Geno’s done a much better job of holding onto the football. He’s got a 10-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio entering Week 8. At this point last year, he had a 7-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Obviously, that’s a massive difference, but as Will Parkinson told us on Thursday, that’s in part thanks to the fact that he’s been a lot more conservative than he was last year.

Jets fans aren’t pleased with the yards he’s left on the table, and it shows in the fact that he’s got the highest short-throw percentage in the league (76%), according to Sumer Sports. What about his average air yards per pass attempt? Well, he’s 26th in the league in that area, averaging 7 air yards per attempt, and he’s actually thrown for an average of 5.8 air yards or less in two out of the last three weeks.

Last week against the Rams, the Raiders did a nice job of keeping things in front of them. Granted, the Rams were down Davante Adams, and they ran for a million yards, but Matthew Stafford only managed 4.9 air yards per attempt.

The Jets have some really good talent in the receiving corps. The combo of Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr., and tight ends Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq are probably the most talented group of pass catchers the Raiders DBs have faced to date. So first and foremost, keep ‘em in front of ya, and also tackle well.

Now, this section is about Geno, so let’s get back to that thread.

We saw teams have success against him last year when they could sit back in that two-high shell, keep things in front of them, and force him to hold onto the ball and force it into coverage. Obviously, you always want to do that, but Geno’s shown he’s susceptible to doing that stuff more often than not.

Even though he’s tops in the league in short-throw percentage, as we mentioned earlier, he’s also got the 11th-highest time to throw in the league. On average, he holds onto it for 2.92 seconds before letting it rip.

You might think that’s because he’s got that kind of time to throw and the O-line must be doing well, but that’s not necessarily the case. The Jets have the third-highest quarterback pressure percentage, have allowed the 10th-most pressures (103), and Geno’s taken the fourth-most sacks (21). Anyone who watched last year won’t be surprised by those numbers.

So, long story short, this feels like an opportunity for the Raiders pass rush to get cranking again and an opportunity to potentially get Geno to strain and try and force it into some tight windows. We know he trusts his arm and will likely be trying to prove a little something here, even though he’s downplayed the game publicly.

So keep an eye on how all that plays out.

ROOKIE SENSATION

Also, keep an eye on the Jets’ injury report today. Rookie edge David Bailey has been on a tear. He’s already got 5.5 sacks (tied for fifth-best), 34 quarterback pressures (fifth) and has a league-best three forced fumbles. He’s playing at a Pro Bowl level, and damn near All-Pro worthy if he keeps this up.

But he may not be out there against the Raiders this week. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a groin injury, so he’s not trending in the right direction.

He’s accounted for 28.8% of the Jets’ sacks and 33.3% of their pressures, so that would obviously be a massive blow to a defense that would rank 30th in pressures and 21st in sacks if not for his production.

I know the passing game hasn’t necessarily been the top issue for the Raiders. The running game needs to get rolling, but if Bailey isn’t out there, you’ve gotta expect Kirk and Klint will have plenty of time to attack this defense through the air.

Speaking of the running game, the Jets’ defense is giving up the ninth-most rushing yards per game (127.7), and as Will Parkinson told us, they’re vulnerable up the gut. Even though the Raiders have had their issues along the offensive line, particularly at guard, I’d expect them to throw some more inside zone and duo the Jets’ way to try and spark this rushing attack.

SOME PERSPECTIVE

This section is typically reserved for a breakdown of the upcoming matchup, but today I’m closing things a little differently with some perspective.

I understand a lot of you are pissed off about the last four games, and that’s understandable. I’ve seen a lot of finger-pointing at the coaches, players, etc. But I think it’s important to realize how much better things are right now for the Raiders than they were last year.

They’re averaging 11.8 more points per game than they were last season. That’s four more points per game than the next closest team. Let that sink in for a second.

It’s also important to note that’s with the league’s 31st-worst rushing offense, a beaten-up wide receiver corps that was already going to be one of, if not the worst, in the league before the season started, an offensive line that has improved but still isn’t all that great, particularly at guard, and two games without Brock Bowers. Oh, and it’s also against three teams who rank in the top 16 in the league in scoring defense, too.

I know you guys have been through a lot of bullshit over the years, but I really think it’s getting better. It’s just going to take a little more time.

Let them get through this season and continue building around Fernando Mendoza, add a real threat at wide receiver, and address nose tackle and some other things on defense, and see where they’re at as a team next year.

And in the meantime, keep everything in perspective and realize the Raiders have beat the teams they “should beat” so far and have lost to the teams they “should lose to” so far, too.

And for the record, they’re playing a team they “should beat” this week.

All stats are Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

FORGET MENDOZA… FIX THESE THINGS FIRST

Forget about Fernando Mendoza, at least for now. The Raiders have lost four straight, and while plenty of fans are ready to move on from Kirk Cousins, Ryan Hoag and I break down why quarterback is far from this team's biggest problem. We dive into the changes Klint Kubiak needs to make along the offensive line, how to get more out of Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers, and why Rob Leonard might need to rethink his defensive approach.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Jack Bech. He returned to practice this week when the Raiders activated his 21-day window to return from IR. He’s been a full participant the last two days and Kubiak said there’s a shot he’d be ready to go by this weekend’s game against the Jets. That would be a pretty quick return from that forearm injury. I’m not sure when he actually comes back, but when he does he should provide a nice boost to this offense. We’ll see what he eventually ads back into this group as a pass catcher but his ability to insert into the formation and get in the action in the box as a blocker is something this team is missing from their receiving corps right now.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Our Friday episode! Keep an eye out for it dropping later this afternoon. I’ll dive deeper into the matchups I’m watching and catch up with our guy Matt Perrault from Pushing the Odds for another edition of Raiders Rounders.

Catch ya next time,