Rams vs. Raiders: Three Phases, Plenty of Opportunities

WHAT THE RAIDERS ARE UP AGAISNT IN THE RAMS

The Rams entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations, so what the hell has gone wrong during their 2-4 start? Longtime ABC7 sports anchor Curt Sandoval joins me to explain why Los Angeles has struggled to live up to expectations and whether the Raiders are catching them at just the right time. We dive into where Maxx Crosby and the Raiders’ defense could have an advantage against Matthew Stafford, why a banged-up Rams defensive front could finally give Ashton Jeanty some room to run and how Kirk Cousins and Klint Kubiak can attack LA’s defense. Curt also shares some great behind-the-scenes stories from his years covering the NFL. If you want to know what’s really going on with the Rams and where the Raiders can exploit them, check out the full episode linked above.

THREE PHASES, PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES

Today, we’re doing things a bit differently. The last few weeks, I’ve highlighted three areas to watch in particular, but I’ve got a lot to say about this matchup between the Rams and the Raiders, so I’m going to run through a couple of things to watch in all three phases of this game.

We’ll start on the defensive side of the ball for the Raiders.

BATTLE IN THE TRENCHES

Matthew Stafford is tops in the league in passing yards, so it might sound weird starting in the trenches, but the Rams have been really good on the ground this year. Their 48.6% rushing success rate ranks third in the league, and they’ve been doing a lot of their damage running between the tackles.

They actually run inside the tackles at the third-highest rate, 61.5%, so the Raiders are gonna need to hunker down on the interior of their defense if they want to win this game.

So far, that hasn’t happened much for ’em. Overall, they’re 26th in the league in run-stop win rate, but on the outside, they’ve been really good against the run. Raiders edge defenders actually own the sixth-best run-stop win rate in the league, but the big issue is on the interior.

That’s where the Raiders are 28th in run-stop win rate by interior defensive linemen, which, as you can see above, doesn’t bode well against a Rams team that likes to run it up the gut.

So they’ve gotta find a way to win in the middle. Does that come from more of a presence on the interior with Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean?

Even with Tonka Hemingway trending in the right direction for a return, I think that’s their best bet. We’ve talked a ton about how good Quay and Nakobe are when they’re running downhill. Gotta get ’em going on the interior and force the Rams to run outside, where the Raiders have fared much better against the run.

RIPE FOR A TURNOVER?

While Stafford has been putting up numbers in the passing game — like I mentioned earlier, he’s tops in the league in passing yards — he’s also turned it over plenty, and it sounds like he could be ripe for a couple more of ’em.

His six picks are tied for the fourth-most in the league. He’s also got the 12th-worst turnover-worthy play rate in the league, and his 6% turnover-worthy play rate when blitzed is actually worst in the league, per PFF.

Now, I know the Raiders don’t blitz a ton. In fact, their 22.3% blitz rate is 30th in the league, but I wonder if we see them get like the Cardinals did last week and blitz more than usual against Stafford and company.

Last week, the Cardinals kicked their blitz rate up by about 12% compared to their season average, and Stafford passed for his second-lowest yardage total of the season.

We’ve seen the Raiders get burned by a few quarterbacks when they’ve blitzed this season, but the stats say Stafford won’t burn them in that area as much as the other guys have. He’s 21st in the league in big-time throw rate, according to PFF.

TROUBLE AT WIDE RECEIVER

Add in the fact that there are questions in the receiving corps for the Rams, and the Raiders gotta feel pretty good about cranking up the pressure a bit more.

Davante Adams is definitely out for this one with that hamstring injury. But Puka Nacua’s status is up in the air. He left practice Wednesday with a calf injury, so stay tuned on his availability.

For now, we’ll assume he’s going to play. He’s obviously a problem if he does indeed suit up. The guy catches everything. He hasn’t been credited with a drop this year, and he’s got the third-highest contested catch rate (90%) among wide receivers with at least five contested catches, per PFF.

But if he doesn’t go, there could be some problems. As a unit, Rams pass catchers are tied for the second-most drops in the league. Like I mentioned, Puka hasn’t dropped one, but Davante had three. So if they’re both not out there, they’ve got a group who’s combined for eight drops.

Sounds like an advantage for the Raiders if you ask me. But stay tuned on the injury front.

One more note on the defensive side for the Raiders: Quay Walker needs to clean it up in the passing game.

Over the last two weeks, he’s combined to allow opposing quarterbacks to go 11-for-11 for 144 yards, an average passer rating of 118.8, and committed one pass interference penalty.

It also looked like Nakobe Dean was responsible for James Cook on that 26-yard catch last week, too.

Ryan Hoag and I have mentioned a ton that we love those guys running downhill, but in coverage, there are some issues, and that’s clearly held true.

Pay attention to how Sean McVay tries to put those two in conflict in coverage this week, particularly against Tyler Higbee, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in the passing game.

CREATE MORE ROOM FOR BROCK

Let’s dive into the Raiders offense now.

It’s no secret Brock is the key to making everything work, and last week, he struggled to get going. He didn’t even get his first catch until there was 4:50 to play in the third quarter!

A big part of that is because the Bills did a great job overplaying in-breaking routes, which is where Brock has done a lot of damage and where Kubiak likes to attack.

Brock also only managed to create an average of 2.2 yards of separation in that game, which was the 18th-worst mark among all qualified pass catchers last week.

Brock’s shown he can make contested catches, so I don’t want to make too much of that stat, but they’ve gotta find a way to give him some room so Kirk doesn’t have to force it into him.

And this week, they’ve got a tough matchup in that area. We all know how much the Rams invested in their secondary. Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Quintin Lake and Kamren Curl are all actually within the top nine highest-paid Rams in terms of total contract value.

And so far, they’ve been money well spent. Their secondary concedes the second-lowest average yards of separation in the league.

So creating space against these guys is going to be even more important, and that’s where Kubiak comes in by mixing up the looks for Brock and giving him more breathing room.

There are a lot of injuries to keep an eye on with the Rams, so keep in mind that McDuffie missed practice Wednesday and Thursday this week with a groin injury. His chances of playing aren’t looking too great, which would be big for the Raiders.

KIRK SHOULD HAVE TIME TO WORK

Another thing that bodes well for the Raiders is that the Rams have had a tough time converting pressures into sacks.

They’re averaging just 1.3 sacks per game, and their pressure-to-sack rate is just 9.8%, numbers that rank above only one team, the Dolphins.

Kirk Cousins has also done a nice job avoiding sacks and has played a large role in helping the Raiders rank third-lowest in sack rate allowed, giving up sacks just 3.4% of the time.

The Rams are gonna be without Myles Garrett, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford up front. They do still have Aaron Donald, but this is one of those games where the Raiders offensive line needs to take advantage of a beat-up unit in front of them.

Which also goes hand in hand with them needing to get the running game going, but we’ve talked about that so much, no need to beat a dead horse.

SPECIAL TEAMS BATTLE

Then there’s special teams. We’ll keep this part short.

But the Rams have been really bad on special teams. They’re actually on pace to be the worst special teams unit in the history of DVOA rankings.

They’re on their third kicker and have had a league-high four drives end on a blocked or missed field goal. They also don’t have a punt or kick return of 25 or 35 yards this season.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have been solid on special teams and are one of the best teams in the league in average starting field position because of it.

So, long story short, they gotta keep doing that and win the special teams battle against a team that’s been horrendous in that area.

For reference, just look at the chart below from PFF that details just how bad the Rams have been on special teams.

*All stats are Next Gen Stats, unless otherwise noted.

REQUIRED READING

Want to dig a little deeper into where things have gone wrong for the Rams? Check out this piece below from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell He hits on it all.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

HOW BUFFALO STOPPED BROCK & WHY MAXX IS DOING MORE THAN YOU THINK

In case you missed Wednesday’s show, Ryan Hoag and I went back to the tape from the Raiders’ 33-30 loss to Buffalo, and there’s reason to wonder whether the Bills just gave the rest of the NFL a blueprint for slowing down Brock Bowers. We break down what Buffalo did to limit Brock, how Klint Kubiak can counter it and why Maxx Crosby is making a much bigger impact than his sack numbers suggest. Plus, we dive into the continued struggles of Ashton Jeanty and the running game, some concerning issues along the offensive line and a few intriguing matchups against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. If you want to know what the film revealed and what the Raiders need to change moving forward, check out the full episode linked above.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Mike Washington Jr. in last week’s game against the Bills. One, it’s a killer shot. And two, there’s some news regarding Mike.

He missed practice Thursday with foot and back injuries, so keep an eye on his status for the game following Friday’s practice. He’s done a nice job generating explosive runs in his limited opportunities, and if he can’t go this weekend, even more will be placed on Ashton Jeanty’s shoulders in what’s been a rough year for him so far.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Our Friday episode! Keep an eye out for it dropping later this afternoon. I’ll dive deeper into the matchups I’m watching and catch up with our guy Matt Perrault from Pushing the Odds for another edition of Raiders Rounders.

Catch ya next time,