Three Ways the Raiders Can Attack the Patriots

JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED?

Could the Patriots be exactly what the Raiders need to finally get their running game going? Taylor Kyles, Patriots beat reporter for CLNS Media, joins me to break down why New England’s struggling run defense could provide the perfect opportunity for Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders’ offensive line to get back on track. Plus, we look at where Drake Maye has been vulnerable against pressure, how Rob Leonard can take advantage, what New England might do to defend Brock Bowers and the biggest keys to knocking off a Patriots team coming off a statement win over Buffalo.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH

GET TO DRAKE MAYE

Tom Brady said it: Drake Maye’s been throwing “meatball subs” this season. In fact, he’s thrown a league-high seven picks this year. As luck would have it, the Raiders are tied for fifth in the league in interceptions, having picked off five passes this year.

Add in the fact that they’re seventh in havoc rating, generating a pressure, TFL, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup on 39.7% of their plays. To me, that points to an advantage for the Raiders on defense against Drake Maye in this matchup. And when they’ve created turnovers, they’ve won. Simple as that.

So, how can they create havoc against the Pats? Relying on their front to get home versus blitzing, which is something they’ve done a lot of this year. The reason I say that is because the Patriots are allowing the fifth-highest pressure rate when facing four or fewer pass rushers.

So, look for Robbie to take advantage of that and continue to pick and choose his spots to send five or more guys. And when they do that, I’d imagine they won’t get burned like they did doing it against the Chiefs.

I say that because, last week aside, Drake hasn’t looked like the same dude. And without AJ Brown, who’s still on injured reserve, the Raiders’ defensive backs will face a much more favorable matchup against guys like Romeo Doubs, Mack Hollis and Efton Chism III.

GET THE RECEIVERS INVOLVED

There’s no need for fancy stats on this next topic. The Raiders might have a shot to get their receivers involved in this one, too.

Yeah, Brock will likely eat. With Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis trending in the wrong direction health-wise, that bodes really well for him, but it also bodes well for the other Raiders receivers, too.

The one guy to really keep an eye on, though, is Kevin Byard. He doesn’t have a pick this year, but he had seven last season. Kirk’s gotta watch out for him, and if he does, I like the Raiders’ chances against this defensive backfield that’s looking pretty beat up right now.

And if they manage to get behind these guys a few times, maybe with Tre Tucker like they did against the Chargers, it’ll open up a lot for the next part we’re about to talk about.

JUMP-START THE RUNNING GAME

We’ve talked about it all week, and really since Week 1. The Raiders have to be able to generate an effective running game to sustain the start they’ve had through the first month of the season.

Here are three stats that paint a picture of just how rough it’s been for the Raiders. Through the first four weeks of the season, they’re averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on designed runs, which is the sixth-fewest in the NFL. They’re also averaging just 0.3 yards before contact per carry (third-fewest), and ball carriers for the Silver and Black have been hit at or behind the line on 49.1% of carries (sixth-highest).

While Jeanty hasn’t looked 100%, those last two stats paint a picture that the offensive line needs to step it up, too.

Since we’ve talked about it so much, I don’t want to belabor the point, but I do want to point out a couple of things as they pertain to this matchup and the ground game.

While the Patriots are roughly middle of the league in yards allowed per carry (4.5), they’re allowing 3.8 yards per carry after contact, which is the fourth-most, and they’ve got the third-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL (18.2%).

When we spoke to Taylor Kyles this week, who covers the Patriots for CLNS out there in New England, he said when rushers get to the line of scrimmage, they rip off solid yardage. That tracks with the stats we just laid out, and the Patriots are allowing rushers to get beyond the line of scrimmage at a pretty high clip. They give up an average of 1.31 rushing yards before contact, which is the 12th-highest, according to Sumer Sports.

So, long story short, this feels like a week where the opportunities should be there, and it will be on Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. to take advantage of that room to run that hasn’t been there in recent weeks.

*All stats are Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

REQUIRED READING

We talk so much about the Raiders lacking a No. 1 receiver, and I’m guilty of it, just like everyone else. Whenever I’ve brought that up, I always note the caveat that Brock Bowers is their No. 1 receiving option, but that they need a receiver at some point to really take that next leap.

But in the meantime, Klint Kubiak is doing some wild things with Brock, and our homie Max Toscano, who jumped on the pod in the offseason to break down the Raiders’ tight end room, dove into how Kubiak used Brock as a WR1 against the Saints and essentially laid out the blueprint for how Klint wants to deploy his top threat throughout the season.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE RUNNING GAME?

What’s going on with the Raiders rushing attack? We break down what we're seeing from Jeanty, the struggles along the offensive line and what Klint Kubiak can do to get things turned around. Plus, we dive into why Kirk Cousins is playing so well despite the offense's shortcomings, what Dont'e Thornton Jr.'s return could mean for the passing game and how the Raiders match up with Drake Maye and the Patriots. If you want to understand what's actually holding this offense back, check out the full episode linked above.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Nakobe Dean. I mentioned above how much I think he can impact this game, especially when matched up against New England’s backs, so it felt fitting. The dude has looked like one of the best free-agent signings of the offseason so far, so we’ll see how he and the defense look on the trip to New England against the AFC’s top dogs from a season ago.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Our Friday episode! Keep an eye out for it dropping later this afternoon. I’ll dive deeper into the matchups I’m watching and catch up with our guy Matt Perrault from Pushing the Odds for another edition of Raiders Rounders. He’s a Patriots fan, so diving into the odds for this game and mixing in a little analysis with him should be pretty fun.

Catch ya next time,