Three Ways the Raiders Can Pull Off the Upset vs. the Bills

HOW THE RAIDERS CAN GIVE THE BILLS TROUBLE

Anthony Prohaska from Cover 1 joins me to break down where the Raiders might have some advantages against Buffalo. We dive into a specific matchup Maxx Crosby can exploit to disrupt Josh Allen, why the Bills’ secondary could be vulnerable against Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers, and why Buffalo’s numbers against the run might be a little misleading, which could be good news for Ashton Jeanty. Plus, we break down what makes Allen so dangerous and the biggest keys to pulling off an upset. If you want to know where the Raiders can attack Buffalo and what it'll take to knock off the Bills, check out the full episode linked above.

WHERE THIS ONE’S WON

GETTING TO JOSH ALLEN

Any talk about this matchup obviously has to begin and end with finding a way to slow down Josh Allen. But let’s be real, that guy’s playing at an unreal level right now. He’s going to get his. You just have to figure out a way to limit him.

He’s thrown four interceptions this season. It’s not some crazy number, but he trusts his arm so much that he’ll give you opportunities for takeaways. He’s got an elite arm, so it’s warranted for him to have that kind of trust. But play some games, get some pressure on him, see if he’ll give you a shot and then it’s up to you to capitalize.

Now, the Bills’ offensive line has been really good this year. They’ve allowed the eighth-lowest pressure rate in the league. So how do the Raiders get home or, at the very least, just affect Allen?

Well, last week we saw the Patriots throw a lot of six- and sometimes seven-man protections at the Raiders, particularly chipping Maxx Crosby a ton. That’s nothing new for him. He’s been double-teamed or chipped at the second-highest rate among all edge defenders with at least 50 pass rushes.

I’d expect that to continue this week. Even though their right tackle, Spencer Brown, has been good, they’ll probably give him some help with chips and things like that at a decent clip because they run two-tight end sets just over 50% of the time, and they’re in 13 personnel at the second-highest rate in the league. So they’ll have the bodies to do that.

Maxx has to continue doing what he does. A lot of people like to say he’s disappeared because he only has two sacks, but he’s tied for sixth in the league in pressures, with 25 on the year. So he’s been impacting plays.

Around him, the guys have to step up, in particular against Alec Anderson, the Bills’ left guard. The stats say he’s held up pretty well. According to Sumer Sports, he’s only given up a 4.9% pressure rate, but our guy Anthony Prohaska from Cover 1 says that’s the matchup to target. He watches the film and said he’s seen his share of struggles in one-on-one pass-blocking situations. So game it up and get to him.

And when they don’t run games, Adam Butler and Folorunso Fatukasi gotta do their thing against him.

WHAT’S COOKIN’?

Josh Allen isn’t the only problem for the Raiders. James Cook comes into this one with the third-most rushing yards in the league. And his offensive line is giving him 2.2 yards before contact, which is the second-most in the league among running backs with at least 50 carries.

And get this, he’s only been stuffed for a loss or no gain on just 11.6% of his carries, which is the sixth-lowest.

And he and the Bills’ offense have been particularly effective when they’ve used man-blocking run concepts, something they’ve done at the highest rate in the NFL so far. He’s gained a league-high 312 rushing yards and averaged 6.2 yards per carry when they turn to man-blocking run concepts.

But, and here’s the part that bodes well for all of you, Raider Nation, the Silver and Black have been really good against man-blocking run concepts. They’ve hit ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage at the second-highest rate in the NFL and are allowing the third-lowest yards per carry when facing man-blocking run concepts.

So, matchup-wise, this is a good-on-good situation.

It’s not rocket science, but if you want a shot to win this game, you gotta stop James Cook and this rushing attack and force the Bills to be one-dimensional.

And one last note: We talked about Allen being a guy who can give you opportunities to turn it over. Cook can, too.

He’s already got four fumbles this year, and his 16 career fumbles are tied for the most among all running backs since he entered the league in 2022.

The Raiders are also tops in the league in forced fumbles, with 11 on the season, and they’ve actually got three more forced fumbles than the next-closest team. Nakobe Dean, Jeremy Chinn, and Malcolm Koonce have all forced multiple fumbles.

They’ve gotta be active on those peanut punches this week.

We’ve said it a ton: The Raiders will have to live and die by creating turnovers this year. But this is a favorable matchup for them to come through with one or two of them, and if they can do that, it just might tip the scales in their favor and give us a game that looks much more like the tight KC game compared to the blowout loss to the Pats.

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BUFFALO’S BAD DEFENSE

Now, we just talked a ton about Buffalo’s offense, and rightfully so. They’re the ones leading the charge. But while they’ve got the league’s top scoring offense, they also own the league’s fourth-worst scoring defense, allowing 28.2 points per game.

So there’s no reason the Raiders shouldn’t be able to get points on the board and turn this one into a game, as long as the defense can come through here and there.

First and foremost, the offensive line has to be better. Last week against the Pats, the Raiders’ O-line allowed a season-high 50% pressure rate. Obviously, that can’t happen again.

And in order to take a step in the right direction, they need to slow down Greg Rousseau, who’s generated the fourth-most pressures in the league and is second in sacks, too.

That’s where I’m looking to them to get like the Patriots and help out with some chips from Mayer and the running backs to buy Kirk some time. Mayer’s had a rough couple of weeks as a blocker, so he’s gotta step up this week.

Then, on the interior, Linderbaum and company have to handle Deone Walker. He’s been on a tear. The 6-foot-7, 331-pound defensive tackle has generated the second-most pressures among D-tackles weighing over 330 pounds, and he’s tied for the third-most run tackles, as well.

Those two guys are the disruptors. Slow them down, and Kirk can get after this defense that, as Anthony told us yesterday, has battled through all kinds of confusion in coverage. So this should be Kubiak’s time to shine and scheme guys open.

Anthony and I talked about the running game and the opportunity the Raiders have there, so I’m not gonna say a ton here. For that, watch our Thursday pod. But the Raiders have a shot to run it against this group. Just gotta win the edge and, again, get more out of Mayer as a blocker to add that extra gap in the running game.

But the other thing I’m going to be watching is how Klint Kubiak gets the backs involved in the passing game.

Rams running backs caught nine passes for 80 yards against the Bills on Monday night. So, for a team that’s lacking receiving weapons outside of Brock, you’ve gotta get Jeanty, Washington, and even Laube going this week.

You do that, and as much as Brock should eat in this game, it should make for an effective offensive outing, even if the running game sputters again.

All stats are Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

REQUIRED READING

If you watch the podcast, you already know about our homie Cody Alexander from Match Quarters. This week, he broke down a couple of third-down plays from the Raiders’ game against the Chiefs. He explains how Rob Leonard and company worked their way through some tricky trips-nub formations Andy Reid and the Chiefs tried to throw their way. Read it, watch it — however you take it in, this is something that will help make you a smarter fan of your favorite team.

MISS ANYTHING?

Catch up on some of our recent stories:

THE BOOK IS OUT THERE… CAN THE RAIDERS ADJUST?

In case you missed our show earlier this week, Ryan Hoag and I went back to the tape to figure out what the hell went wrong in the Raiders’ 45-17 blowout loss to the Patriots and, more importantly, what needs to change before Josh Allen and the Bills come to town. We dive into how New England exposed some major weaknesses in the Raiders’ offense and defense, why Maxx Crosby hasn’t been as disruptive as he could be and what Rob Leonard can do to change that. Plus, we break down the adjustments Klint Kubiak needs to make to get Ashton Jeanty and the running game going while doing a better job of protecting Kirk Cousins.

FANSHOTZ FRIDAY

“FanShotz Friday”

By now, you have seen the phenomenal photos we’ve been using in many of our newsletters. They’re some of the best shots you’ll find of your favorite team, captured through the lens of our friend Arnie Bazemore of Fanshotz.com. Every Friday, we’ll feature Arnie’s favorite Raiders shot of the week that he captures at practice or on game day.

This week, we’re featuring a shot Arnie snagged of Mike Washington Jr. in the Raiders’ game against the Saints back in Week 3. He broke off a big 36-yard touchdown run in that one, and it’s the last time he made a real noticeable impact on a game.

I get it, he wasn’t great in pass protection against the Chiefs, so he fell out of favor a bit. But this Raiders offense desperately needs guys who can generate explosive plays. So, for that reason, I think they gotta get him out there more than they did in the last game against the Patriots.

He only had one carry in that game, and I expect that to change this week against the Bills.

Check out Arnie’s work at his site linked above and reach out if you’re interested in working with him. He’s a great guy and has been so supportive of me over the years when I was at NBC here in Vegas, and he’s come along for the ride with Silver & Black Sports Network, too.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Our Friday episode! Keep an eye out for it dropping later this afternoon. I’ll dive deeper into the matchups I’m watching and catch up with our guy Matt Perrault from Pushing the Odds for another edition of Raiders Rounders.

Catch ya next time,